Here’s a bold statement: United Airlines is defying expectations in a turbulent market, but not everyone is convinced their strategy will pay off. And this is the part most people miss—while their earnings and profit outlook are beating estimates, their revenue is telling a different story. Let’s dive in.
On Wednesday, United Airlines (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/UAL/) made headlines by forecasting higher-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, a surprising turn after a shaky start to the year. The airline predicts earnings between $3 and $3.50 per share for the final three months, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $2.86 per share. But here’s where it gets controversial—while United is expanding its flying capacity, its revenue for the third quarter fell short of Wall Street’s estimates, raising questions about the sustainability of their growth strategy.
United has been aggressively growing its operations, increasing capacity by 7% in the third quarter compared to last year. Meanwhile, competitors have pulled back on their expansion plans due to oversupply issues that have pressured fares. Despite this, United’s unit passenger revenue dropped 3.3% for domestic travel and 7.1% for international flights in the quarter ending September 30. However, there’s a silver lining: sales from their loyalty program surged by 9%, showcasing the strength of their customer base.
In a recent interview, United CEO Scott Kirby defended the airline’s expansion strategy, emphasizing investments in customer experience. From complimentary in-flight Wi-Fi to refreshed cabins and new lounges, United is betting big on winning over loyal customers. Kirby stated, ‘Those investments, combined with exceptional service, have helped United retain brand-loyal customers, ensuring resilience even amid economic volatility.’ But is this enough to justify their aggressive growth?
For the third quarter, United reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.78, topping the expected $2.62. Revenue, however, came in at $15.23 billion, slightly below the $15.33 billion forecast. While revenue grew 2.6% year-over-year, net income dipped 1.7% to $949 million. Adjusted for one-time items, income stood at $909 million, or $2.78 per share.
United is also competing fiercely with Delta Air Lines (https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/DAL/) to attract high-spending travelers. They’ve expanded their global network to exotic destinations like Greenland and Mongolia, with premium-cabin revenue rising 6% in the third quarter. Meanwhile, sales from their no-frills basic economy seats grew by 4% year-over-year. But here’s the controversial part—is United spreading itself too thin by expanding while others are scaling back?
Earlier this year, United and other carriers trimmed their earnings forecasts due to fluctuating passenger demand and oversupply issues. Now, as the economy shows signs of improvement, United is doubling down on growth. But the question remains: Will this strategy pay off in the long run, or are they flying too close to the sun?
What do you think? Is United’s aggressive expansion a bold move or a risky gamble? Let us know in the comments—we’d love to hear your take!
